When it comes to displacement, there is a tendency to focus on one type at a time, usually internal or cross-border displacement. While this can be helpful in developing digestible advocacy messages and manageable policy responses, a siloed approach runs the risk of perpetuating gaps in data and understanding, especially when it comes to displacement as a result of climate change.
Displacement On the Rise
Analyzing quantitative data on the types and modes of displacement must occur within an understanding of the ‘big picture’ of displacement. UNHCR recently provided a useful statistic to that end: at the end of 2022, 108.4 million people were displaced worldwide, a figure that includes refugees, asylum seekers, internally displaced people (IDPs), and others in need of international protection.
This staggering number, which represents an increase of 19 million from the end of 2021, provides a sobering and urgent reminder of the scale of global displacement. It also helps to frame discussions around specific subsets of forcibly displaced people, including the increasing number of people forced to move due to disasters such as severe weather events.
According to the latest International Displacement Monitoring Centre (IDMC) report, there were 8.7 million IDPs globally as a result of disasters at the end of 2022. There was also a record 32.6 million internal displacements associated with disasters in 2022, referring to the number of forced movements of people within the borders of their own country last year.
This figure is the highest recorded in a decade and 41% higher than the annual average of the past ten years. For clarity, since people may be displaced multiple times in a year, the number of total internal displacements is much higher than the total number of IDPs due to disasters, the latter of which provides a snapshot figure at the end of a given calendar year.
According to the latest data, 98% of disaster displacements were triggered by weather-related hazards such as floods, storms, droughts, wildfires, landslides and extreme temperatures. The remaining 2% of disaster displacements were caused by geophysical hazards such as earthquakes, volcanic eruptions and landslides.
The IDMC also provides important highlights of disaster displacement situations across different regions. For example, countries across Africa experienced 7.4 million disaster displacements in total, a nearly three-fold increase and the highest figure ever reported for the region.
On the other hand, disasters triggered 305,000 displacements in the Middle East and North Africa, marking not only a 25% increase from the previous year but also highlighting how most disaster displacements were recorded in countries already affected by conflict, illustrating how drivers of displacement are intersecting in the region.
In East Asia and the Pacific, around 10.1 million disaster-related displacements were recorded, down from 13.7 million in 2021 and below the annual average of 11.6 million over the last decade. However, nearly a third of the countries in the region reported an increase in disaster displacement, many of them in Southeast Asia.
South Asia, on the other hand, experienced 12.5 million disaster displacements in total, double the annual average of 6.3 million over the past decade. This significant increase was mostly as a result of the severe and widespread flooding that occurred in Pakistan during the monsoon season, which accounted for a staggering 25% of global disaster displacements last year.
In the Americas, there were 720,000 IDPs at the end of last year, although the IDMC notes that this is in part because most countries in the region do not monitor disaster displacement beyond the initial crisis phase and lack data on protracted displacement as a result.
A Crisis That Demands Comprehensive Approaches
These figures are an important indicator of how disasters, which are becoming more severe and frequent due to climate change, are driving displacement. And while this attention given to sudden onset events such as storms, floods, cyclones and earthquakes is understandable, the latest IDMC report highlights the importance of considering displacement in the context of slow onset events such as drought and rising sea levels. Without adequate data on such displacement, we do not have the full picture of climate displacement and the total number of people impacted.
Despite the need for more data, the significant impact of slow onset events is rather prevalent globally. For example, 1.1 million internal movements were recorded in Somalia last year as the country experienced its worst drought in 40 years. The World Weather Attribution initiative conservatively estimates that climate change has made such droughts about 100 times more likely.
And of course, internal displacement is just one piece of the complex landscape of global climate change displacement. Unfortunately, there are significant data gaps here as well, and the status quo has historically been one where actors fail to truly understand how, when, and where people are displaced across borders by climate change. For example, there is currently no concrete data on the number of such displacements. Ian Fry, the UN Special Rapporteur for the promotion and protection of human rights in the context of climate change, recently raised concerns on the reluctance of actors such as UNHCR and IOM to make a total assessment of the number of persons displaced internationally as a consequence of climate change.
Although it may be difficult to isolate climate change as the root cause of displacement, the Special Rapporteur notes that in some circumstances, it is very clear that climate change events are drivers of displacement and people can be defined as being displaced by climate change.
Ultimately, climate change is increasingly driving both sudden and slow onset events and resulting in displacement around the world, as the UN High Commissioner for Refugees reminded us just days ago. In this regard, we must also acknowledge that climate change displacement, whether internal or across borders, is a prime example of loss and damage, which demands swift and sustained action by policymakers and donors, as negotiations at the recent UN climate change conference demonstrated.
For instance, the IDMC notes that IDPs should be supported to return, integrate locally or resettle elsewhere as long as their rights and livelihoods are protected. To this end, donors and policymakers should continue to support the strengthening of disaster risk reduction, climate resilience, food security and poverty alleviation efforts. When it comes to cross-border displacement, states must introduce safe and legal pathways so that people are not forced to undertake perilous journeys to seek safety from a crisis they played no part in creating. Filling the above-mentioned gaps in data and understanding would be an enormous help to governments and other actors faced with these challenges.
Beyond the critical task of building the political will necessary to realize these efforts, actors must also listen to what impacted people are saying. Communities who are most affected by the climate crisis must be central to discussions that will affect their own futures. They must be given the power, agency and resources to ensure their rights and dignity are protected and their livelihoods are supported as climate displacement continues to drive displacement around the world.
Thankfully, filling data gaps, listening to communities, and even focusing more on climate change-related displacement - both from sudden and slow events - are all themes that are receiving greater attention at the international level, such as during the recent climate change conference in Bonn, Germany. But action must move beyond alignment on buzz words, and it must do so quickly. As countries, civil society organizations, and the global community at large look ahead to COP28, developing a comprehensive understanding of climate change displacement, from both slow and sudden onset events, has never been more urgent.