In the near future, flood risks in the United States will not only increase due to climate change, they will also shift south to regions where Black populations are higher.
We already know that climate disasters cost the world $170 billion last year, with the US paying the heaviest price at $65 billion. Now a new study released Monday warns that US flooding losses could increase by as much as 26 percent by 2050, due to climate change, and from the looks of only the crumbling infrastructure as one indicator, the US is hardly ready.
Importantly, the 26.4 percent estimate increase is based on the lower emissions targets agreed to at COP26. Not only is this indicative of the targets being insufficient, it also signifies the likelihood of greater losses if the targets are not met.
But it’s not just the scale of the flood risk that’s cause for concern, but who will bear the burden. The study reveals Black communities in the South will face disproportionate risks in time to come.
Researchers from the University of Bristol found that although floods are affecting impoverished white communities in Appalachia and the Northeast more right now, in the coming decades, the risk will shift to Texas, the Gulf Coast and the Southeast, where higher numbers of Black communities reside.
“Overall, the authors estimate a 40% increase in flood risk in places where at least one fifth of the population is Black.”
The sharpest increases are expected along the Gulf and Atlantic coasts. Flooding costs are expected to skyrocket to 49 percent in Jackson, Mississippi and 24 percent in Montgomery, Alabama.
Of course the impacts of more frequent and intense storms aren’t financial only, but the longterm compounding effects they impose can be devastating. Those who can afford insurance now may find themselves priced out of the market, while those uninsured, will be even more dependent on unequal state and federal assistance, which bears the legacy of racism even in disaster.
For more on that, read this SPOTLIGHT “Race, Class and Colonialism in a Time of Climate Crisis” that explores the reasons behind the unequal FEMA disaster response in past US climate disasters.
Returning to the new study, the authors underscore the need to protect people now by shoring up existing infrastructure in flood-risk locations and urban planning that ensures populations and businesses are not congested in flood-prone areas.