A study conducted by researchers at the University of East Anglia found that about 90% of the Himalayan region will experience drought lasting over a year if global temperatures were to increase by 3°C. This would not only negatively impact long-term water storage in the form of snow and ice, but it would also be devastating for communities as these areas form the headwaters of many major river systems, thus the water source for millions of people.
Similarly, a report published last year by the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) found that 80% of the Himalayan glaciers’ current volume will disappear by 2100 under current emission scenarios. The report warned that melting glaciers will cause dangerous flooding and water shortages for nearly 2 billion people who live downstream of rivers that originate in the Himalayas. Researchers warned that the availability of freshwater would be under threat for 240 million people living in the mountains and an additional 1.65 billion people living in downstream areas.
Amina Maharjan, a migration specialist and one of the authors of the report, highlighted how this is an urgent issue of climate justice: “The people living in these mountains who have contributed next to nothing to global warming are at high risk due to climate change.” The risks and effects of climate change are already affecting Himalayan communities, such as last year when the Indian mountain town of Joshimath began sinking and forced residents to relocate within days.
The ICIMOD report also found that the Himalayan glaciers disappeared 65% faster since 2010 than in the previous decade, and warned that the region could see a significant uprise in glacial lake outburst floods by the end of the century. This report echoes findings from previous studies which have shown that the cryosphere – the regions on Earth covered by snow and ice – are amongst the worst affected by climate change, such as research published in 2022 which found that Mount Everest’s glaciers have lost 2,000 years of ice in just the past 30 years.
UNESCO predicts that glaciers in a third of 50 World Heritage sites are set to disappear by the year 2050, regardless of efforts to minimize global temperature increases. It seems it would only be possible to save the glaciers in the remaining sites if temperatures do not exceed 1.5°C compared to the pre-industrial period. This study also highlighted that glaciers lose 58 billion tons of ice annually and are responsible for nearly 5% of the observed global sea-level rise.
The importance of glaciers should therefore not be underestimated, as half of the world’s population directly or indirectly depends on them as their water source for domestic use, agriculture and power. Glaciers are also key pillars of biodiversity as they feed many ecosystems worldwide. The rapid melting of glaciers worldwide poses a multifaceted set of risks for millions of people’s health and livelihoods, due to water scarcity and drought, higher risk of disasters such as flooding, and increased likelihood of displacement as a result of rising sea levels.
It is no wonder why the issue of climate change and mountains is increasingly present on global climate policy agendas. At COP28 last year, specific references to mountains were included in the Global Stocktake (the conference’s main outcome text) for the first time. The text recognized the vital role of ecosystems, including mountains, amidst the climate crisis; called for integrated solutions such as land-use management and conservation; and urged greater ambition and support for climate adaptation by emphasizing the protection of ecosystems, including mountains worldwide.
The momentum of this formal recognition must be sustained, notably during the expert dialogue on mountains at the upcoming UNFCCC intersessional climate talks in June. As suggested elsewhere, this dialogue must chart a path for continuous exchange and action on understanding how climate change’s impact on mountains can affect other areas, such as small islands; addressing the knowledge gap and data availability for climate-related issues in mountainous regions; and underlining the climate adaptation actions urgently needed in mountainous countries, such as early warning systems for glacial lakes and rivers.
No discussion of climate change and mountainous regions is complete without considering loss and damage. While low-lying island states and least developed states will likely receive the bulk of support from the newly operationalized fund, countries and communities in mountainous areas - like in the Himalayas - must also have access. The scale of the challenges they face, and their very limited role in causing climate change impacts, demands adequate and sustained assistance from the Global North. Anything less would be a climate injustice.
The cost of inaction will be significant for millions of people living in mountainous areas that are prone to climate-related risks. As the world was 1.4°C warmer in 2023 than the late 19th-century average (when modern record-keeping began), global leaders must also take immediate and significant steps to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, which remains the ultimate remedy toward preventing further irreversible damage to our planet and its people.
